Pest Risk Assessment of Aeolesthes sarta (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in Pakistan under Climate Change Scenario

Aeolesthes sarta (Solsky 1871) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) is a polyphagous longhorned beetle species that primarily damages broadleaved tree species. This pest distributed in the western and northern regions of Pakistan, where it caused serious damage to Populus spp. plantations. However, growth dispersal patterns insects pests are changing due climate change. Modeling range expansion or contraction A. development Pakistan was goal current study, assuming change might influence geographical distribution Pakistan. Under historical future climatic conditions, areas were estimated using CLIMEX model. Three time periods, 2030 (early century), 2070 (late 2100 (end forecasted for habitat suitability two scenarios (CCSs) A1B A2. historic condition (HCC), most its optimum accounted 71.67% total potential distribution. In early-century period, dropped 50.60% 52.22% under A2 suitable condition. late-century further reduced 31.76% 30.60% scenarios. Moreover, at end-century severe shrinkage predicted (19.99% both CSSs). The model shift west north. Furthermore, climatically conditions became unsuitable during period. These projected results will assist identifying impacts global warming on possible sarta, thereby offering vital information developing early forecasting pest-prevention techniques prevent loss forest woodland trees.